Formula One faces interesting times. The governing body of motorsport, the FIA, is attempting to impose a number of conditions on the sport, which many competing teams reject. Among the proposed changes are a huge reduction in operating costs administered in the form of a budget cap: for the teams to resist this seems to the uninitiated to be financially irresponsible at best; massively out of touch with the prevailing economic conditions, at worst.
All teams - along with any proposed new entrants - must have lodged entries to the 2010 Formula One World Championship before the end of May 2009. The existing F1 teams, under their trade body FOTA (Formula One Teams Association) initially entered en bloc, with a number of conditions attached to their entry, concerning both budgetary and regulatory issues. The FIA rejected the conditions and urged FOTA to reconsider. Under the pressure of negotiation, Williams and Force India, two existing teams, cracked. They resubmitted their entries to the FIA without conditions. FOTA promptly suspended them and stands firm.
Complicating the debate is the fact that several new entries have been received and the FIA is due to announce which of these has been successful, and therefore the make-up of the 2010 grid, today (Friday 12th June).
There are four possible scenarios that I can see from the announcement today:
1. The 2010 grid will include Williams, Force India and up to 11 new teams. The FOTA entry will not be accepted and Ferrari, McLaren, BMW, Toyota, Brawn, Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Renault will no longer compete in Formula One (at least for 2010).
2. FOTA will split along manufacturer/independent lines, with Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Brawn joining Williams, Force India and up to eight new teams. Manufacturer teams will not enter, but may still supply engines to some teams.
3. FOTA will split along contractual lines. Some teams have separate contracts with the FIA binding them to compete until 2012. Ferrari is one of these. Under this scenario, these teams honour their contracts and join Williams, Force India and new teams sufficient to make up the proposed 13-team grid.
4. The FIA capitulates and allows the FOTA conditional bloc entry, adding only three new teams to make 13 in all. Favourites are USF1, Prodrive and Lola.
Any one of the first three scenarios will leave Formula One commercially stronger than it is currently. The fourth scenario would be a disaster.
Here’s why…
Scenario 1: FOTA stands strong but is rejected
Formula One teams compete under a budget cap and with some other FIA-led environmental conditions. This is socially responsible and therefore attractive both to fans and sponsors. Lots of new teams mean lots of unpredictability; unpredictability is what makes sport exciting. This generates viewership on TV and is therefore also good for sponsors. Lots of new teams combined with the reduced financial burden on existing teams means that there are new sponsorship opportunities that represent very good value. The FOTA teams may carry through their threat of forming a competitive series which - if successful - will double the potential sponsorship opportunities and bring the price of sponsorship down further. Under this and each of the first three scenarios, the FIA re-asserts its authority and this promotes a stable environment, essential for commercial investment.
Scenario 2: FOTA splits and manufacturers leave F1
Formula One teams compete under a budget cap and with some other FIA-led environmental conditions. This is socially responsible and therefore attractive both to viewers and sponsors. The independent teams that help to give F1 its entrepreneurial character remain and are joined by new independent teams: suddenly it’s all about racing again and fans flock to the sport in greater numbers. Sponsors follow.
Manufacturers retain a presence in the sport via engine supply, giving technology and marketing benefits for them without the cost/profligacy of Formula One under the current model. Same points as above regarding new teams, new opportunities and the likely effect on the cost of sponsorship. Same point as above regarding the FIA promoting a stable environment for investment.
Scenario 3: FOTA splits and teams act independently
All the benefits of scenario two. Some manufacturers will remain in the sport. For those who believe that auto manufacturers like Ferrari and Mercedes add value to the credibility of F1, this may be the best scenario. But will manufacturers remain under sufferance? Ferrari is well known to oppose the FIA’s budget cap proposals and may suffer if these are forced upon it.
Scenario 4: FOTA stands strong and is accepted
More limited budget reductions over time, with many exclusions, will be a fudge and F1 will remain fiscally irresponsible and will struggle to attract new sponsors. Rejection of FIA-driven environmental initiatives will achieve the same effect. New teams will not be able to compete on either budgetary or technical grounds and an opportunity to refresh the sport with new blood will have been missed.
In summary, sponsors will benefit from any split, implosion or explosion announced on June 12th. They will not benefit from either the status quo or any lack of decisiveness on the part of the FIA - although if things runs true to form, lack of decisiveness is the last thing we should expect.
By Scott Garrett on June 12th, 2009
Tags: Default, Formula 1, Sponsorship